36,328,901 ballots cast so far
As of October 28, 2026, 36,328,901 ballots have been cast in the 2026 midterms across 47 reporting states: 17.6 million mail ballots returned and 18.7 million cast in person. In the states that publish party, registered Democrats cast 42.4 percent of those ballots and registered Republicans 32.1 percent.
Which way the early vote is pointing
Every Senate and governor race the forecast has within 8 points, in a state reporting ballots. The bar runs from the early vote the underdog needs to flip the race to where it is now. Open a state for its full benchmarks.
The electorate of the 0 ballots cast
Every ballot cast so far, by the voters behind it: the forecast’s own 2026 electorate, split by who votes by mail, early in person or on Election Day, set to each state's live count and party split. Compare it with the whole electorate the forecast expects by Election Day.
How it works: every county starts from the 1,152 voter types the forecast simulates in it, by age, race, college, party, 2022 and 2024 vote history and Trump approval, each with its chance of voting. A model of On Point Polling likely voters gives each type its chance of voting by mail, early in person or on Election Day under the state’s ballot rules, and respondents add the share of women in each type and how many of the 2018 and 2020 elections it voted in. Those mixes are set to the ballots each state has actually cast by mail and in person, and to its party split, reported or modeled. Where a state publishes early voters by age, race or gender, that dimension follows the state’s count. These are estimates, not voter file counts.
Party registration of the voters who cast these ballots, in the states that publish it. It is not how they voted.
Pace compares each state with its own 2022 count at the same number of days before Election Day. Open a state for its pace chart, or read the then and now section below.
Every reporting state
47 states| State | Ballots | In person | Of 2022 turnout | Pace | Dem | Rep | Modeled D ballots | Modeled R ballots | Vs expected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 5,535,929 | 226,205 | 5,309,724 | 67.9% | +23% | n/a | n/a | 1,891,87034.2% modeled | 2,335,20842.2% | D +1.1 |
| California | 3,791,228 | 3,751,480 | 39,748 | 34.0% | +3% | n/a | n/a | 2,225,56258.7% modeled | 1,034,05227.3% | D +10.1 |
| Florida | 3,642,773 | 1,631,657 | 2,011,116 | 46.7% | +1% | 39.0% | 40.2% | 1,421,81139.0% | 1,463,95540.2% | R +7.0 |
| Georgia | 2,128,281 | 98,385 | 2,029,896 | 53.7% | +1% | n/a | n/a | 911,87742.8% modeled | 731,66934.4% | R +1.6 |
| North Carolina | 1,961,167 | 70,776 | 1,890,391 | 51.7% | +22% | 40.4% | 24.8% | 792,03340.4% | 486,51924.8% | R +2.9 |
| Ohio | 1,292,227 | 521,626 | 770,601 | 30.8% | +41% | n/a | n/a | 535,96041.5% modeled | 421,86232.6% | R +1.4 |
| Arizona | 1,269,928 | 1,269,928 | 0 | 49.0% | +17% | 37.7% | 38.5% | 478,48037.7% | 489,43038.5% | D +2.4 |
| Virginia | 1,257,993 | 285,037 | 972,956 | 41.6% | +66% | n/a | n/a | 603,64048.0% modeled | 313,01524.9% | R +1.4 |
| Washington | 1,202,321 | 1,202,321 | 0 | 39.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 790,03165.7% modeled | 222,04918.5% | D +14.4 |
| Michigan | 1,197,558 | 1,197,558 | 0 | 26.6% | -6% | n/a | n/a | 646,33754.0% modeled | 231,32419.3% | D +1.2 |
| Tennessee | 1,018,521 | 0 | 1,018,521 | 58.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 234,11823.0% modeled | 496,76848.8% | R +0.6 |
| Colorado | 982,530 | 975,382 | 7,148 | 38.7% | +0% | 32.3% | 24.4% | 317,34532.3% | 240,04524.4% | D +4.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 931,701 | 931,701 | 0 | 17.2% | -1% | 65.4% | 25.0% | 609,56265.4% | 233,24925.0% | R +2.7 |
| New York | 918,633 | 0 | 918,633 | 15.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Wisconsin | 873,458 | 574,433 | 299,025 | 32.7% | +47% | n/a | n/a | 407,73446.7% modeled | 194,43022.3% | R +1.2 |
| Oregon | 806,727 | 806,727 | 0 | 40.4% | n/a | 43.4% | 30.7% | 350,50843.4% | 247,43630.7% | D +4.6 |
| Illinois | 804,552 | 449,499 | 355,053 | 19.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 472,63858.7% modeled | 142,31917.7% | D +1.1 |
| South Carolina | 705,437 | 34,123 | 671,314 | 41.0% | +64% | n/a | n/a | 194,94327.6% modeled | 342,37848.5% | R +0.6 |
| New Jersey | 624,376 | 486,670 | 137,706 | 23.6% | +10% | 62.4% | 20.9% | 389,44362.4% | 130,45420.9% | D +4.4 |
| Louisiana | 520,942 | 72,417 | 448,525 | 36.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 202,97539.0% modeled | 211,83940.7% | R +1.8 |
Early vote questions
How many people have voted early in the 2026 midterms?
As of October 28, 2026, 36,328,901 ballots have been cast across 47 reporting states: 17,627,335 mail ballots returned and 18,701,566 cast in person. Another 30,800,913 mail ballots sent or requested have not been returned yet.
Which states report early votes by party?
25 states report the party registration of early voters: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Oregon, New Jersey, Nevada, Iowa, Arkansas, Maryland, Utah, New Mexico, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska, Delaware, Rhode Island, West Virginia, South Dakota, Kentucky, Wyoming, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Idaho. In those states registered Democrats have cast 42.4% of these ballots, Republicans 32.1% and independents and third parties 25.6%. Party registration shows who has voted, not how they voted. For states that report no party, On Point Polling estimates the party mix from county results and voter demographics.
When is Election Day 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 6 days after the latest count. Early voting dates, mail ballot deadlines and in person hours are set by each state.
Where do these early vote numbers come from?
Counts come from state and county election offices, compiled by civicAPI and refreshed every day. On Point Politics adds the party and demographic estimates, the comparison with 2022 and 2024 and the check against the On Point forecast.
Does the early vote tell us who will win?
Not by itself. Early voters lean older and more partisan than Election Day voters, and the mix changes as more ballots come in. The tracker compares each state with its own pace in 2022 and 2024 and with the On Point forecast, which is the better test of whether a state is running ahead of or behind expectations.
Counts come from civicAPI, which collects them from state election offices. Each state reports on its own schedule and publishes different breakdowns, so a state with no party split simply does not publish one. Pace uses each state's published 2022 and 2024 early vote checkpoints.